Thought energy prices were coming down? Turns out bills are now expected to rise from October. Here’s what’s changing, why it’s happening, and what you can do.
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If you were hoping your energy bills might finally ease off this autumn, we’ve got some bad news.
Experts are now saying prices are heading back up from October, despite earlier forecasts suggesting the opposite.
According to consultants Cornwall Insight, a typical dual fuel bill is expected to rise to £1,737 a year. That’s around £17 more than it is now, which might not sound like a lot, but in the middle of a cost of living crisis, every pound matters.
This new forecast is a shift from what we were being told just a few months ago. Back then, prices were expected to keep falling. But things have changed. And unfortunately, not in our favour.
Why are energy bills rising again?
There are a few reasons behind the u-turn, and they’re a mix of politics, policy, and global drama.
First up, there’s a new cost being added to help fund government support schemes.
One of these is the expansion of the Warm Home Discount, which will now support six million people instead of four million. That’s great news if you qualify, but the money has to come from somewhere, and that somewhere is everyone’s energy bill. It’s expected to add about £15 to each bill.
On top of that, global events have been messing with gas and electricity prices again. Tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty around US trade decisions, and worries about supply chains have all added to the wobble.
Ofgem, the UK energy regulator, sets the price cap every three months. They look at energy prices over a set period to decide what the cap should be. During their most recent review, prices were higher, so the cap is going up.
Haven’t prices dropped recently?
Yes, they have.
Wholesale gas prices in Britain have actually fallen to the lowest they’ve been in over a year. And the European Parliament is easing rules on how much gas needs to be stored for winter, which could help keep things stable.
But because Ofgem looks at data from a fixed period before setting the cap, that drop in prices came a bit too late to make a difference for the October update.
Will prices go back down?
Possibly.
Cornwall Insight reckons we might see a small drop in January. But that depends on a lot of things, including how cold the winter is, whether we get more global drama, and if the government decides to add extra charges, such as support for new nuclear energy.
The official announcement from Ofgem will come on 27 August. That’s when we’ll know for sure what’s happening next.
What can you do now?
You can’t control global gas prices, but there are a few things you can do to stay ahead:
- Check if you qualify for the Warm Home Discount. The scheme has expanded, so even if you weren’t eligible before, it’s worth checking again. It could mean £150 off your bill.
- Send in your meter readings before the new rates kick in. This helps make sure you’re not charged at the higher rate for past usage.
- Make some small energy tweaks around the house. Things like using energy-saving bulbs, turning off appliances at the wall, and avoiding peak times for laundry can make a dent over time.
- Keep an eye on your energy use. If you’ve got a smart meter, check in regularly to spot anything odd or wasteful.
- Follow our updated Warm Home Discount guide for all the latest support info.
Skint Dad says…
“It feels like we’re always waiting for prices to go down, and then they just go back up again.
“But we’ve got to deal with what’s in front of us.
“The best way to stay one step ahead is to grab the help that’s out there, make small changes at home, and stay clued-up on what’s coming next.”
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