Households on variable energy deals in England, Scotland and Wales could face another rise from 1 January 2027, after Cornwall Insight forecast a £1,999 annual bill for typical gas and electricity use.
The figure is a prediction. Ofgem has not yet confirmed the January price cap, so your bill is not set to rise by that amount automatically.
In its forecast published on 30 September 2026, the energy analysts put the January figure about 16% above the £1,723 cap starting on 1 October. That is a difference of £276 a year on the typical household figure.
What the £276 forecast means for your bills
The headline amounts show what typical gas and electricity use would cost over a full year at those rates, with payment by Direct Debit. Each cap covers three months.
| Price cap period | Typical annual figure | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 1 October to 31 December 2026 | £1,723 | Confirmed by Ofgem |
| 1 January to 31 March 2027 | £1,999 | Cornwall Insight forecast |
Dividing the £276 difference by 12 gives £23 a month. That is a way to compare the annual figures, rather than a prediction of your next Direct Debit payment.
It does not mean you would pay an extra £276 between January and March. Your costs would depend on the final rates and how much energy you use during those months.
Ofgem explains that the price cap limits energy rates and daily standing charges, rather than your total bill. A standing charge is the amount you pay each day to stay connected, even when you use no energy.
Your own bill can be higher or lower than the typical figure. Rates also differ by area and payment method.
Why the forecast has risen
Cornwall Insight says disruption to gas supplies caused by the conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the cost of energy bought by suppliers.
The January calculation already includes some of those higher market prices. The final amount can still change before Ofgem sets the cap.
The renewed pressure comes after five years of rising costs. The Resolution Foundation’s latest research explains how the cost-of-living crisis has left household incomes £2,900 behind expectations.
What is already confirmed for October
Ofgem announced the October cap on 26 August. Its £1,723 typical annual figure is £60 higher than the previous £1,663 figure, equivalent to £5 a month if the rates lasted a full year.
Our guide to the 1 October energy bill changes explains the confirmed rates and why bills are rising despite the electricity VAT cut.
What you can do now
Check whether your bill says you are on a fixed or standard variable tariff. A tariff is your energy deal. A standard variable tariff can change with the cap; the cap does not set the rates for a fixed deal. If your fix is ending, check what happens next.
Check your energy account balance too. Our guide explains how to check whether you’re owed an energy refund. Allow for higher winter use before deciding whether to ask for credit back.
Compare energy deals using your own yearly gas and electricity use. Look at the rates, daily charges, length of the deal and any fee for leaving early. A forecast alone cannot tell you which deal will work out cheapest.
If your prices change on 1 October and you have a meter you read yourself, submit a reading around the change so your supplier can bill your use accurately. A working smart meter that sends readings should do this automatically.
If bills are already difficult to afford, ask your supplier about help. This could include reviewing your payments, an affordable payment plan or support from a hardship fund. You can ask now, before any January increase is confirmed.
If you’re struggling with several household bills, our guide to what to do when you can’t pay your bills explains where to start and where to find free advice.
